February 12, 2007
Senator Hillary Clinton (D) continues to enjoy frontrunner status and now attracts 28% of the vote from Likely Democratic Primary Voters nationwide. The former First Lady of the nation recently asserted that “I’m the one person [Republicans] are most afraid of. Bill and I have beaten them before and we will again”, but the former First Lady continues to lead the Democratic nomination racewas pulling away from other contenders for the Democratic nomination, the latest Rasmussen Reports Election 2008 polling shows that the race has stabilized a bit.
However, while Clinton is the frontrunner within the party, Obama and Edwards do a bit better in general election match-ups against leading Republicans. Obama and Edwards both lead John McCain (R) while Clinton is essentially tied with the Arizona Senator. John Edwards is within two points of Rudy Giuliani (R), closer than any other Democrat. See match-ups and favorability ratings for all Democratic candidates.
Clinton has in the lead for every Rasmussen Reports Election 2008 survey, but her lead is down slightly from last week and other recent polls.
Obama, who formally announced his entry into the race on Saturday, is enjoying a modest bounce in the polls. He has pulled to within five percentage points of the frontrunner. A month ago, at the height of Obama-mania, the man from Illinois had pulled to within a single point of Clinton.
Edwards remains in third place, currently attracting 13% of the vote. Al Gore is in fourth place with support from 8%.
Despite the fact that the frontrunners in the Democratic Party are a woman and an African-American, 60% of voters believe that the Democrats will end up nominating a white male as their Presidential candidate in 2008. Eight-out-of-ten Americans say they are willing to vote for a woman Presidential candidate and a similar percentage say the same about an African-American candidate. However, in each case, just over 50% believe their peers are likely to do the same. There is a significant difference of opinion on these questions by age. Just a third of senior citizens believe their peers would vote for a woman or an African-American.
It is clearly very early in the nomination process and much could change between now and the time when votes are cast in Iowa and New Hampshire. However, given the front-loaded nature of the Primary schedule, perceptions of the candidates and their competitiveness could become very important in determining the nominees for Election 2008. If a candidate is unable to raise serious money and build a solid organization early, they may find themselves unable to compete in what is shaping up to be almost a national primary on February 5.
An update on Republican Primary polling will be released tomorrow. Last week, Giuliani and McCain were the clear frontrunners.