Obama and Clinton Tied in Poll

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Barack Obama at ASUHillary Clinton in Berlin Feb 10, 2007 4

HAT TIP: Rassumssen Reports

For the fourth straight week, Illinois Senator Barack Obama (D) has gained ground and he has finally caught New York Senator Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination. It’s now Obama 32% Clinton 32% and former North Carolina Senator John Edwards holding steady at 17%.  New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson is a distant fourth at 3%. Senators Chris Dodd and Joe Biden each attract 1% support. So does General Wesley Clark.

Obama has been steadily gaining ground during April. Last week, Clinton had a two-point lead. Two weeks ago, it was Clinton by five. The week before that, the former First Lady was up by seven. Our last release in March found Clinton enjoying a double digit lead.  Clinton now holds a narrow edge among white voters while Obama leads by 16% among African-Americans.

A separate survey showed that Obama has the highest level of core support among all Presidential candidates—33% of voters say they’d definitely vote for him if he’s on the ballot in November 2008.

Rasmussen Reports releases national polling data on the Democratic nomination process every Monday and on the Republican race each Tuesday. The current survey of 782 Likely Democratic Primary Voters was conducted April 16-19, 2007. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 50% and unfavorably by 49%. Obama’s numbers are a bit stronger—59% favorable and 34% unfavorable. The two candidates are essentially even among Democrats—Clinton is viewed favorably by 74% in her party while Obama is viewed favorably by 72%. Among unaffiliated voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 50%, Obama by 67%.

All Democratic candidates issued statements last week opposing the Supreme Court ruling on partial-birth abortion. That ruling was little noticed due to the tragedy at Virginia Tech. Just 40% of Americans knew how the Court ruled on the issue. Most who knew agreed with the ruling.

The Democrats were cautious in their statements about gun control following the Virginia Tech shootings. While there has been an increase in support for stricter gun control laws in the aftermath of that horrific event, less than half of Americans want stricter gun control laws.

Iraq remains the Democrats most potent issue—just 33% of voters now believe history will judge the U.S. mission in Iraq a success.

Yesterday was Earth Day and 45% of American voters see Global Warming as a Very Serious problem. Another 28% say it is Somewhat Serious. There is a significant divide over whether the human activity is the cause or if the Warming is simply part of a long-term planetary trend.

12 thoughts on “Obama and Clinton Tied in Poll

  1. rikyrah

    I thought the most interesting part of the poll was the ‘definitely vote/will never vote for split.’

    That’s the number to continue to watch.

  2. I think the thing hurting HRC the most right now is that people are so fed up with Bush that they want a clean break from the past…and that includes her and Bill. The worse Bush does, the worse her chances are. And this is bad news because I dont see people getting any waam fuzzies for president dufus any time soon.

  3. SB:

    Off topic, but needs to be known. Check out the following Shaquanda Cotton article in the Amsterdam Daily News:

    http://www.amsterdamnews.com/news/Article/Article.asp?NewsID=12861&sID=3

    Seems that the NAACP (the Paris, Texas chapter) knew about Shaquanda’s plight – her mother went to them for help and got zip, zero, nada.

    The Dallas Chapter President called them out on it, after everyone started asking where the hell they were…

    Just sayin’….

    And Paris is looking for blood, now that their attempts to lynch a young Black woman blew up in their face. They should talk to the folks in Jasper when them good ol’ boys decided to drag James Byrd up and down asphalt until he was decapitated for sport….(growl)

  4. dblhelix

    Did anyone else get their “commemorative photo” this past week from the campaign?

    I must say that his campaign is marketing far more aggressively than any other. No shortage of phone calls or four-color mailers. Have not heard from any of the others except for one letter-style mailing from Hillary, which I might have missed except for the largish logo.

  5. rikyrah

    I must say that his campaign is marketing far more aggressively than any other. No shortage of phone calls or four-color mailers. Have not heard from any of the others except for one letter-style mailing from Hillary, which I might have missed except for the largish logo.

    I got my first Obama snailmail since he announced this week. I get routine emails though.

  6. I’m hosting an Obama fundraiser in Los Angeles this weekend and the Senator will be present. Obama represents the future. HRC represents the battles of the 1960s and 1990s all over again. Obama is a clean slate, and that’s what people want.

  7. NMP

    SB,

    Have you done an anaylsis of these polls over the last few election cycles to see which ones have been the most accurate? WAPO/ABC polls seem to be getting most of the press, but their’s is the only one showing Obama stagnate, so I’m most curious about their accuracy.

  8. Rick

    Last night Guiliani said, in essence, that a Presidential win by the Democrats is a win for the terrorists – a flashback to Bush and Cheney’s cheap shots vs Kerry ahead of the 2004 elections.

    Both Obama and HRC came back with pointed remarks:
    * Obama: “Rudy Giuliani today has taken the politics of fear to a new low and I believe Americans are ready to reject those kind of politics”

    *HRC: “One of the great tragedies of this Administration is that the president failed to keep this country unified after 9/11. We have to protect our country from terrorism — it shouldn’t be a Democratic fight or a Republican fight.”

    my guess is Rudy’s feeling a little “slippage” in the polls (vis-a-vis Obama/HRC) so he’s trying to regain some momentum. seems a lil desperate if you ask me…

  9. Rick

    OT: NY Times and Wall Street Journal just reported…
    “WASHINGTON, April 25 — A House committee voted this afternoon to authorize a subpoena of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice as it presses an inquiry into the claims, long since discredited, that Iraq sought uranium from Niger.”

    WOW! things are gettin’ a lil hot in the nation’s capitol. if this session is open to the public, i’ll be the brotha smilin in front of the C-Span camera. I thought it was awfully foul that the Bush Jr. played the “African card” — ala Bush Sr. and WILLIE HORTON — in making a connection between Iraq and WMDs and using that as a reason for us to go to war. I hope they ask her about those “mushroom clouds” too. Ms. Rice has some explaining to do!

  10. rikyrah

    my guess is Rudy’s feeling a little “slippage” in the polls (vis-a-vis Obama/HRC) so he’s trying to regain some momentum. seems a lil desperate if you ask me…

    This is my guess too, and is very indicative of why I can’t stand him. It’s about time folks started asking the serious questions, related to terror, his unwillingness and inaction with regards to terror after the FIRST World Trade Center bombing, his friendship with the Mobbed-up Kerik, why the firefighters hate him, why he put the command center in the World Trade Center, etc.

    Let’s have him answer some questions.

  11. rikyrah

    OT: NY Times and Wall Street Journal just reported…
    “WASHINGTON, April 25 — A House committee voted this afternoon to authorize a subpoena of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice as it presses an inquiry into the claims, long since discredited, that Iraq sought uranium from Niger.”

    Man…

    I love that word SUBPOENA.

    Raise.that.hand.Condi.

    Raise.that.hand.

  12. Cliff

    • Seems that the NAACP (the Paris, Texas chapter) knew about Shaquanda’s plight – her mother went to them for help and got zip, zero, nada.
    The Dallas Chapter President called them out on it, after everyone started asking where the hell they were…

    The Political Junkie: This is where the pressure comes from; the people, black people united on one issue. The NAACP did not want to react to Shaquanda’s case in Texas. The NAACP did not react until they heard the outrage of black people on a national scale. Once the Dallas Chapter President recognized the outcry for justice, then he reacted acordingly.

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