Fascinating Rasmussen Poll: Obama and Bloomberg tied

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Hat Tip: Rasmussen Reports

A new telephone survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports highlights the difficulty of estimating the potential impact of an independent Presidential campaign by New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

While any third party campaign is a long-shot at best, Bloomberg has reportedly said he will spend up to a billion dollars of his own money on a campaign. Given such resources, he could be competitive with the major party candidates in getting his message out.

When voters are told in advance that Bloomberg might spend up to a billion dollars on a campaign, and that he might support proposals to get voters back in the loop of America’s political system, 51% of New Jersey voters say they would consider voting for him. Just 23% would not. Not surprisingly, given his regional name recognition, that’s a bit more support than found in national polling.

In fact, in a three-way race with Illinois Senator Barack Obama (D) and former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson (R), Bloomberg is tied for the lead. It’s Obama 32% Bloomberg 32% and Thompson 20%.

Bloomberg does almost as well when the other candidates are former North Carolina Senator John Edwards (D) and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (R). With that match up, it’s Edwards 34% Bloomberg 32% and just 18% for Romney.

Bloomberg does not fare as well when the major party candidates are also from New York. An all New York general election match-up shows New York Senator Hillary Clinton (D) with 38%, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani 29% and Bloomberg 21%.

If Bloomberg found himself in second place as Election 2008 progresses, the dynamics get even more interesting. If it became clear that the Republican candidate couldn’t win, 48% of New Jersey voters say they’d pull the lever for Bloomberg over New York Senator Hillary Clinton (D). Just 36% would vote for Clinton.

If the Democratic candidate couldn’t win, 33% of voters would prefer former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani while 48% would prefer Bloomberg.

These results are dramatically stronger for the Mayor than an earlier New Jersey survey in which respondents were not told in advance about Bloomberg’s reported spending commitment or any campaign themes.

In this survey, before the ballot questions were asked, respondents were asked a series of questions to determine if they would be more or less likely to vote for Bloomberg. Forty-six percent (46%) say they’d be more likely to vote for Bloomberg he were to support a proposal requiring all tax increases to be approved by voters.

Forty-five percent (45%) say they’d be more likely to vote for Bloomberg if he were to build a true third party rather than just make an ego-driven run for the White House.

In this survey, 33% of New Jersey voters believe it is possible for him to win the White House if he spends that much money. Thirty-nine percent (39%) say it is not possible while 28% are not sure. Those figures are identical to the earlier New Jersey survey.

Bloomberg is contemplating running at a time when the brand names of the two major parties is not doing well —the number of people considering themselves Republicans has dropped to the lowest level of the Bush era and the number of Democrats has just declined to the lowest level in seventeen months.

8 thoughts on “Fascinating Rasmussen Poll: Obama and Bloomberg tied

  1. rikyrah

    This is a very interesting survey.

    Will a Jewish candidate play in Peoria?

    That’s the question.

    Though, if it’s a Bloomberg/Hagel ticket…I think things would be very interesting in politics.

    If this happened, politics would be absolutely INSANE during 2008. I would love it, political junkie that I am once again.

    But, seriously, what happens when Peoria realizes that Bloomberg is Jewish? I don’t see it being a problem on either coast, but the middle of the country, as well as the South? I think he could have issues.

  2. It is too soon to think that polls can mean anything at this point – especially considering there could be completly different names in the mix than what was selcted for this poll. Obama is likely to fade. Thompson will not carry any water. Someone like Gingrich could prove formidable, but would heap more onto the demise of the GOP. But Bloomberg. Poll or not he is THE MAN!

    Draft Michael dot com.

  3. NMP

    Never Never Never Never Never going to happen! He should donate that billion dollars to a worthy charity than flush it down the toilet. The only effect he would have is siphoning votes from one or both of the two major party candidates. At best, it would be a down payment on the Governor’s chair or Clinton’s senate seat if he helps her siphon votes from Giuliani.

  4. NMP

    Joseph,

    You’re absolutely right! These polls mean NOTHING this early. The media is only publishing them to keep political junkies watching and reading through the summer which is typically their worse ratings season.

  5. NMP

    “But, seriously, what happens when Peoria realizes that Bloomberg is Jewish?”

    Do we really need to ask?🙂

  6. Rick

    “Will a Jewish candidate play in Peoria?”

    In 2008, I say let’s destroy the racial barrier in presidential politics once in for all…Blacks, Women, Hispanics…Jews. whatever. Any Asian candidates out there waiting in the midst? Come on out!! Let candidates of ALL backgrounds run — that is, if they have fresh new ideas that can turn this country around for the better.

  7. I see a bunch of Presidential “hopefools.” The only one with any balls is Freddy Thompson. But he’s too smart to actually throw his hat into the ring. ###

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