SC Primary Poll: Obama 34% Hillary 25% Edwards 12%

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WASHINGTON – South Carolina appears poised to shake up the 2008 presidential race, with Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Fred Thompson the frontrunners in a new state survey by Mason-Dixon.

With strong support from the African American community, Illinois Senator Obama has assumed a strong lead over New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. On the Republican side, Thompson zoomed to the top spot, slightly ahead of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, even though he hasn’t yet announced his bid for the GOP nomination.

The Mason-Dixon poll, made available to McClatchy Newspapers and NBC News, offered disappointing news for two candidates who previously had been polling well in South Carolina. John Edwards, a South Carolina native who won the primary in 2004, was well behind Obama and Clinton on the Democratic side. Arizona Sen. John McCain, meanwhile, appeared to have lost many of his supporters to Thompson, and was far back in the GOP field.

Although it is still nearly seven months off, the first Southern presidential primary is proving a major attraction to candidates in both parties, who are spending extensive time in South Carolina.

Obama led in the new poll with 34 percent of likely voters to 25 percent for Clinton. Edwards was third at 12 percent. Sen. Joe Biden was at 2 percent; so was former Vice President Al Gore, who has given no indication of running but whose name was volunteered by some voters. Twenty-four percent were undecided.

For Democrats, the most crucial group of voters in South Carolina are blacks, who by some estimates could make up more than half of the party’s primary voters.

Nationally, Clinton leads Obama among black voters. But in South Carolina, likely voters overwhelmingly favored Obama (41 percent) over Clinton (18 percent). About one-third of the black voters in South Carolina remained undecided.

“As long as he maintains his edge in the black community, Obama has the edge in South Carolina,” said Coker.

Earlier South Carolina polls have mostly shown Clinton with a lead over Obama and Edwards still in the hunt.

Edwards has been counting on a strong showing in South Carolina, but his outspoken opposition to the Iraq war and drift to the left on other issues may not be playing well with the state’s pro-military, generally conservative voters.

South Carolina’s Democratic primary is tentatively scheduled for Jan. 29 and Republican primary for Feb. 2.

This poll is showing movement among the black electorate toward Obama, while it is a very small sample-less than 400 polled, it is an interesting snapshot of the race at this point.  If Obama keeps this up, he has a chance.  Nothing short of 75% black support will get him the nomination.  

37 thoughts on “SC Primary Poll: Obama 34% Hillary 25% Edwards 12%

  1. Rick

    I’m not so sure these polls mean anything at this point. They vary so much and are subject to change as people learn more about the differences between the candidates. The money race is what really matters at this point. The winning campaign will be the one with the resources to compete on Feb 5.

  2. Rick

    I didn’t mean to suggest they would be broke. I do think Obama will need to stay even with Hillary in the money race if he wants to win. If she ends up with millions more to spend, she’ll blow him and everyone else out of the water and the message won’t matter at all.

  3. The proof will be in the puddin’ , as my moms used to always say.

    I don’t know about anyone on this board, but I’m beginning to suspect the Borg Queen might be behind that Obama-Girl video, but that might be because sometimes, I tend to think that conspiracies are more closer to the truth than it is to fiction.

    Obama has the Borg Queen nervous; I wouldn’t put it past her. Even though she has Maya Angelou’s endorsement, I think she will really start worrying if Obama gets big ups from organizations like NOW, or individuals like Soros.

    What do you guys think?

  4. This morning, I did something that I don’t normally do. I watched the Today Show. Well, they reported that the latest MSNBC pole reflects that Hil now has a double point lead over Obama.

    I pretty much agree with Rick that poles go up and down, depending on what information continues to flow about the various canddidates. However, I’m a little concerned that the people, those that are uninformed, will use the poles as a guide to help them determine who they will throw their support behind.

    It’s also interesting to me that someone (I can’t remember his name.) the Today Show interviewed this morning pointed out that Hil has not too much more experience than Obama in terms of political experience. He pointed out that her stay in the White House should not be counted as political experience. He compared her stay in the White House to the cooks that were in the White House. I thought that was hilarious for him to minimize her time in the White House and help the uninformed realize how little experience she really does have.

  5. Rick aka "The Original S.B. Rick"

    Ummm…

    just checking in for the 1st time since Friday weekend and noticing that a different poster under the alias “Rick” used the same name in posts 2 and 4. just clarifying that wasn’t “me” who wrote that…

    (honestly, that was a little scary lol)

    Rick

  6. Rick aka "The Original S.B. Rick"

    By the way: a message to the Imposter “Rick”

    The candidate you support is a jerk! (I’m one of the 50%’ers that will never vote for her so that’s why I said reading posts 2 and 4 were “scary.”)

    Rick aka “The Original S.B. Rick”

  7. rikyrah

    I don’t know about anyone on this board, but I’m beginning to suspect the Borg Queen might be behind that Obama-Girl video, but that might be because sometimes, I tend to think that conspiracies are more closer to the truth than it is to fiction.

    Obama has the Borg Queen nervous; I wouldn’t put it past her. Even though she has Maya Angelou’s endorsement, I think she will really start worrying if Obama gets big ups from organizations like NOW, or individuals like Soros.

    What do you guys think?

    I’ll put my tinfoil hat on with the best of them, and I’ll go in with you.

    I’m also serious…we should think about every negative Black stereotype Bogeyman out there, and write them down. I assure you, between now and Primary Season 2008, there WILL be some sort of commercial out there against Obama using them.

    BET.ON.IT.

    And, no, they can’t do it, conventional-wise, because if that mess ever were linked to TBQ, she’d be done with ‘ us’, and they know it. So, it has to be ‘ slick that way’.

  8. Rick aka "The Original S.B. Rick"

    “I tend to think that conspiracies are more closer to the truth than it is to fiction.”

    Hillary and her operatives are getting so desparate they’ve resorted to stealing people’s aliases on blog sites to spread their BS propoganda.

  9. It’s also interesting to me that someone (I can’t remember his name.) the Today Show interviewed this morning pointed out that Hil has not too much more experience than Obama in terms of political experience. He pointed out that her stay in the White House should not be counted as political experience. He compared her stay in the White House to the cooks that were in the White House. I thought that was hilarious for him to minimize her time in the White House and help the uninformed realize how little experience she really does have

    That sounds hilarious to me too, and it IS correct. By 2008 comes around, Obama will have more ELECTED political experience than BOTH HRC and Edwards.

  10. “By 2008 comes around, Obama will have more ELECTED political experience than BOTH HRC and Edwards.” (Rikyrah)

    Excellent point… I think more people need to hear that.

  11. Rick aka "The Original S.B. Rick"

    and just for future reference, in case similar nonsense comes up in the future… Me supporting Hillary is like SB supporting Harold Ford.

    I pretty much have much nicer things to say — when deserved — about others: e.g. Obama, Bloomberg, Edwards, Hagel (that’s all I can think of right now).

    just sayin🙂

  12. Ogre Mage

    I think Obama has a strong chance to win the S.C. primary. It definitely is his best opportunity of the early primary states. But anything can happen, especially as Rep. Clyburn said he will not endorse anyone until after the Iowa.

  13. NMP

    rikyrah,

    Let me borrow your tinfoil hat if I may. I’m not only convinced that the Clintons are behind the Obama girl video in an effort to trivialize and over sexualize him, but I’m also convinced that she’s leaking the Rezko stories to the Chicago newspapers, which don’t offer a shred of evidence of inpropriety but leave the impression of guilt by association. Moreover, I strongly suspect that she has an operative(s) in Obama’s campaign. That leaked Indian memo was too convenient. Opposition research is as common as political polling, so how did this memo fall into the hands of the Clinton Campaign and why did the reporter choose to violate the unspoken rule that such memos remain unattributable b/c that’s how they get most of their scoops? I’m convinced her operative wrote it purposely with a xenophobic undertone and put it into the hands of one of the many “reporters” pushing her candidacy.

    I don’t know if anyone is watching MSNBC daily, but it’s turning into a daily lynching of Obama starting with Joe Scarborough in the morning then Tucker Carlson and now Chris Matthews who turned red yesterday screaming that Obama doesn’t have a chance of closing the gap with Hillary. White men like Kerry have been able to come from 5% of the polls in a matter of weeks, but it’s impossible for Obama to do it in 7 months??? Tucker Carlson is beyond the pale. He went after Michelle Obama on Chris Matthew’s Sunday show to the point that the Black female guest journalist was visibly upset.

    I think the growing number of negro pols that Hillary is purchasing is sending a strong message to White men that they now have free license to immasculate Obama. She’s not going to be satisfied just defeating him; she wants to completely demoralize him to justify picking a Latino or White male mid-westerner for VP. What I don’t understand is why so many Blacks are willing to join in on this. Fine, stay on the side lines, but they don’t need to join the lynching.

  14. rikyrah

    I don’t know if anyone is watching MSNBC daily, but it’s turning into a daily lynching of Obama starting with Joe Scarborough in the morning then Tucker Carlson and now Chris Matthews who turned red yesterday screaming that Obama doesn’t have a chance of closing the gap with Hillary. White men like Kerry have been able to come from 5% of the polls in a matter of weeks, but it’s impossible for Obama to do it in 7 months??? Tucker Carlson is beyond the pale. He went after Michelle Obama on Chris Matthew’s Sunday show to the point that the Black female guest journalist was visibly upset.

    I saw that on the Chris Matthews Show, and I was glad that Ms. Norris stood up for Michelle Obama. Carlson’s after Obama – that much has always been clear, from day one.

    THAT is why this money primary is important, no matter how they try and dismiss it. Of course, if they were slamming him in the money primary, then it would be important.


    I think the growing number of negro pols that Hillary is purchasing is sending a strong message to White men that they now have free license to immasculate Obama. She’s not going to be satisfied just defeating him; she wants to completely demoralize him to justify picking a Latino or White male mid-westerner for VP. What I don’t understand is why so many Blacks are willing to join in on this. Fine, stay on the side lines, but they don’t need to join the lynching.

    WHich is why I’m sticking with him until the end. And, I’m STILL never voting for her. Ever.

  15. Rick

    “Which is why I’m sticking with him until the end.”

    Not to put you on the spot Rikyrah — ok, maybe just a little🙂 — but what if an independent ticket, say Hagel/Bloomberg, entered the fray? would that at least give you something to think about?

    did you see this article yesterday?
    “Newly empowered Democrats draw wrath of voters”
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070618/pl_nm/usa_congress_war_dc

    “A Gallup poll last month put Congress’s approval rating at 29 percent….the new polls have stung Democrats and put them on the defensive.”

    Count me in as one of the disgusted! Perhaps a 3rd option is what we need, if nothing more than to force the Democrats to get their acts together…

  16. “Which is why I’m sticking with him until the end.”

    Not to put you on the spot Rikyrah — ok, maybe just a little — but what if an independent ticket, say Hagel/Bloomberg, entered the fray? would that at least give you something to think about?

    The ONLY way I’d vote for TBQ is if it’s a Clinton/Obama ticket. But, since I’m on record as saying that’s NEVAH GONNA HAPPEN🙂, then I don’t think I have anything to worry about..LOL

    If it’s TBQ/someone else, Thompson/someone and Hagel/Bloomberg, or Bloomberg/Hagel, then I might think about any Hagel/Bloomberg combination.

    On the GOP side, I just can’t deal with Rudy or Flipping Mitt – they are both hideous with no principles.

  17. Rick

    “Got a question….What about a Bloomberg/Gore or Gore/Bloomberg ticket?” – Rikyrah

    either order works for me. (Although i doubt Gore would come back to be “just” a VP.)

    Rikyrah, i am not voting for Hillary regardless of who else is on her ticket. If Obama doesn’t get the nomination (and he wants to be president) his best bet in my opinion is to run for Gov. of Illinois and get more experience as an “executive” politician… (as opposed to being in a likely polarizing Hillary administration as VP).

  18. Rick, I got much love for you. I was just clowning.

    Y’all have a nice day. I’m working in the field today, so I won’t be able to catch y’all until tonight.

    Have a good day…

  19. dblhelix

    I don’t understand where all of you are coming from with your Hagel love. I will happily vote Hillary as compared to this nonsense:

    Voted NO on setting aside 10% of highway funds for minorities & women. (Mar 1998)

    Voted YES on ending special funding for minority & women-owned business. (Oct 1997)

    Voted NO on repealing tax subsidy for companies which move US jobs offshore. (Mar 2005)

    Voted YES on reforming bankruptcy to include means-testing & restrictions. (Mar 2005)

    Voted YES on increasing penalties for drug offenses. (Nov 1999)

    Voted NO on raising the minimum wage to $7.25 rather than $6.25. (Mar 2005)

    Voted YES on killing an increase in the minimum wage. (Nov 1999)

    Voted YES on confirming Samuel Alito as Supreme Court Justice. (Jan 2006)

    Voted YES on extending the tax cuts on capital gains and dividends. (Nov 2005)

    Voted YES on $350 billion in tax breaks over 11 years. (May 2003)

  20. Rick

    “Which Rick is this? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA Is this our Rick or the imposter? LOL”

    That was “me”, Angie LOL

    And as you know, I have much love for you too…Have a good day today🙂

  21. Rick

    dblhelix –

    I mentioned that I tend to have nice things to say about Hagel because of his position on the war in Iraq (willingness — very early on — to change course, going against the position of his party).

    In addition, Bloomberg, would do well for himself to find himself a running mate, from the Midwest who could swing “red states”.

  22. dblhelix

    Rick — sorry that you were a victim of identity theft, LOL.

    Bloomberg is no prize, either. While the Iraq shift speaks favorably of Hagel, overall, his record is abysmal. What I posted only scratches the surface.

    My feeling is that Bloomberg’s shift is only to serve notice that Big Business will not stand for a combination like Edwards vs (Conservative Kook).

  23. Rick

    [Hagel] Voted YES on extending the tax cuts on capital gains and dividends. (Nov 2005) — dblhelix

    Well, I must say that as a (small) investor, I’m not mad at Hagel for this one…but for most of those other votes, I hear ya. I definitely hear ya, dblhelix.

    regarding Bloomberg, it’s still speculation at this point…but I’m excited about the possibility of a potential run.

  24. Rick

    “And Rick, sorry about the imposter.”

    rikyrah / dblhelix – no worries. the imposter provided an opportunity to clarify my less than admirable feelings for HRC LOL

  25. Katie

    The whole experience thing is a red herring. If anybody ever asks you about Obama’s experience, I think it’s important to point out that he has exactly the kind of experience we do want and not a ton of the kind we don’t want. I read something interesting recently that suggested that the whole concept of “experience” can be translated into “it’s his turn,” or her turn in the case of Hillary. This concept stems from labor and seniority, interestingly, where folks believe that you are climbing a ladder and if you’re on a rung, you can’t skip the next rung. This kind of thinking in Presidential politics doesn’t fly. We can clearly point to Obama’s experience in community organizing and in the Illinois Legislature. The fact he’s only been in D.C. for two years ought to be a plus! If folks want to make him wait another eight years so that he can get more experience, who will he have become in those eight years??? The time is now.

  26. Katie,

    You don’t have to convince me. In ‘ ELECTED’ Experience, by 2008, he’ll have more of that than Hillary AND Edwards.

    ‘Experience’ is just a thing to throw at Obama in their try to denigrate him.

  27. And I still say that these idiots that’s saying that Obama doesn’t have enough experience were saying nothing when George was running. He had absolutely no experience.

    This is that black tax. Because Obama is a black man, he has a higher standard to measure up to. It’s ridiculous.

    I experience that in the world I live and move in. Because I’m a black woman, a blind woman, I have to step up my game and be better than everyone else, just to be considered worthy of certain opportunities. Again, it’s ridiculous.

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