Rasmussen Poll: Obama up 10 points in New Hampshire

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Hat Tip: Rasmussen Reports

Barack Obama, fresh from his victory in Iowa, now holds a ten point lead over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race found Obama with 37% of the vote while Clinton earns 27%. John Edwards is the only other candidate in double digits, with 19% support. Bill Richardson is the choice for 8%.

In a pre-Christmas poll, Clinton led Obama by three. In the poll before that, Obama led Clinton by three.

Clinton still leads nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll but Rasmussen Markets data suggests the race for the nomination is essentially even.

In New Hampshire, Obama leads Clinton by five points among Democrats and by sixteen points among Independents. The survey indicates that 40% of the voters will be Independents.

Eighty percent (80%) of Obama voters say they are certain they will vote for him. Seventy-three percent (73%) of Clinton voters say the same along with 64% of Edwards supporters.

Eighty-five percent (85%) of Likely Primary Voters have a favorable opinion of Obama. Seventy-eight percent (78%) say the same about Edwards and 69% offer a positive assessment of Clinton.

Just 48% of Obama supporters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Fifty-one percent (51%) have the opposite opinion including 22% with a Very Unfavorable opinion of the former First Lady. At the same time, 75% of Clinton supporters have a favorable opinion of Obama.

Among Edwards voters, 79% have a favorable opinion of Obama and 73% say the same about Clinton.

Obama is seen as the most electable Democratic candidate. Eighty-seven percent (87%) believe he would be at least somewhat likely to win if nominated. Seventy-six percent (76%) say the same about Clinton and 75% think Edwards would have a chance. Fifty-one percent (51%) of the Likely Democratic Primary Voters believe Obama would be Very Likely to win. Just 38% have such confidence in Clinton.

 

Also in today’s news is Wisconsin Governor Jim Doyle’s endorsement of Obama and the endorsement of former Virginia Governor L. Douglas Wilder, the first black elected Governor, of Obama. Wilder, now the mayor of Richmond, VA, was a former 1992 Presidential candidate against Bill Clinton.

In a sweet irony, Wilder’s presidential ambitions were ended by skittish Yankees in New Hampshire skeptical of the notion of a black president. Clarence Page has written, “When Doug Wilder tested the New Hampshire presidential primary waters in 1992, three years after he became Virginia’s first elected black governor, a white New Hampshire focus group liked him until they found out he was black, according to Wilder’s pollster. They had no personal objection to his race, they said, but they doubted that he would go over with the rest of the state’s voters.”

 

Today’s polls and overflow crowds appear to indicate that most of New Hampshire has gotten over that particular racial hang-up.

29 thoughts on “Rasmussen Poll: Obama up 10 points in New Hampshire

  1. candace

    SB,

    Was there ever a racial hangup there in NH? Just curious! Good for Obama. IMO. Obama represents the type of negroe most white folks like to support! i.e. Hard-working, intelligent, nonconfrontational, humble, compassionate, AND MARRIED TO A BLACK WOMAN!!!

    BTW, though I support Obama, I’m not feeling all of this animosity towards Hillary. If Obama weren’t in the race, I’d be voting for Hillary. i think she too represents change, and i think she’s not ideologically that far apart from Obama. Heck, even Edwards looks good to me as well! I guess I’m just appalled at the Hillary animosity. Wow, politics is very fickle. i hope this love for Obama remains!!

  2. If the Borg Queen loses New Hampshire, she might as well pack up and return to the Senate, cause she will be done.

    No way she gets South Carolina, and by the time she gets to states she could possibly carry, they will have gone for Obama or Edwards.

    I’m still holding Obama to the same damned standards as I do the rest of the Congressional Black Caucus. So he needs to quit with the attacking Pakistan shyt, or any other warmongering before I fully come on board with him.

  3. starr1

    Well how is everyone doing?!!!! I haven’t been to this site in quite sometime—let me see–oh yea–I think my last post was –don’t count Obama out. I can’t believe what I’ve been reading especially after Thursday nights victory speech. It appears this blog has some OBAMA supporters now! Better late than never.

    From the start I have supported and defended Obama. This site has not been kind to him but in the year of New Beginnings 2008 anything is possible.

    We changed the world for the better in the 60’s (the civil rights movement) and now we are changing it in 2008 (the people’s movement). The least among us are the greatest among us.
    OBAMA ’08

  4. martin

    Obama didn’t make too great a showing at New Hampshire’s debate tonight. John Edwards, on the other hand, rocked! All things considered, substance, style, experience, commitment….Edwards is the clear best choice for democrats and for president.

  5. Well, you do know that NH went blue in 2006.

    He did NOT hurt himself in the debate. He looked adult, in control, and, ahem…Presidential..LOL

    The GOP debate was a free-for-all, and I still think The Huckster was the most likeable of the bunch.

    TPJ,

    NO WAY IN HELL she packs it up, even with a New Hampshire loss. No way. You know it and I know it. I want NH for this reason….SOUTH CAROLINA. I want the pictures of Black folks standing in line to vote for him.

    There was a young woman on Charlie Rose on Friday. She’s doing a documentary on Obama volunteers for her thesis at Columbia Journalism Grad School.

    She was so professional the entire interview, until Charlie Rose asked her what the Obama win in Iowa meant to her personally. She tried to stay professional, and she did her best, but she was choking on her words at the end, holding back tears. It’s one of those rare human moments that you just don’t find very often on tv.

  6. Chesapeake

    Congratulation to Obama for getting Wilder’s endorsement. That’s a hard one to come by. While Obama’s my number 2 choice, I see that as a great endorsement for his campaign.

  7. New WMUR Poll Out Today:

    Poll: Obama jumps ahead of Clinton in New Hampshire

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/01/06/poll-obama-jumps-ahead-of-clinton-in-new-hampshire/

    MANCHESTER, New Hampshire (CNN) — With two days to go until the New Hampshire primary, a new CNN/WMUR poll out Sunday afternoon suggests that Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois has opened up a double digit advantage over New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

    In the survey, conducted by the University of New Hampshire on Saturday and early Sunday, 39 percent of likely Granite State Democratic primary voters back Obama as the party’s nominee — that’s ten points ahead of Clinton’s 29 percent. Obama is up six points and Clinton down four points from our survey conducted on Friday and early Saturday.

    Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina is at 16 percent in the new survey, down four points from Saturday. Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico is in fourth place, with the support of 7 percent of likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters, with Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio at 2 percent.

  8. Rikyrah:

    The Borg Queen will be toast if she loses New Hampshire, no matter how many House or Patio Negroes she trots out to tote her water.

    I never knew you were one for blood, girlfriend,😉

    Cause there will be some major bloodletting if Black folk stomp on her as they go to vote for Obama or Edwards.

    Here’s my prediction for both New Hampshire and South Carolina:

    Obama, Edwards, The Borg Queen placing last in both contests.

    If she likes packing a losing track record until she gets to a state like New York, how many columns you want to read between now and early Spring telling her to pack it in because she can’t overcome Edwards, much less Obama?

  9. Hey guys…

    I don’t know if NH had any hang-ups about race years ago, although it is probably plausible. In any case, I have had an experience that could use some black perspective.

    I’m in Utah with some Mormons, listening to the radio station hosted by Fred Savage. I think his show is called the “Savage Nation”. Anyway, he said that Obama won NH because he handed out 50,000 flyers telling out of state college students to drive into NH and vote.

    One Mormon commented that that was ‘dirty politics’. I asked that if it was legal, why didn’t Hillary and the others do the same thing? But what I wondered was this: here is a black American in America. And the rights of African Americans have been a mere afterthought in the scheme of nationhood. And when the rights were coming slowly and agonizingly, dirty politics made sure we got the short end of the stick. In short, if Obama played dirty politics, he is only engaging in something our ancestors have been practicing for years.

    I was amazed at how above reproach so many white politicians are to them. If my knowledge was as extensive as SB’s, I might have been able to shed some light in an objective, rational matter.

    I think I have some studying to do to show myself approved…

  10. New USA Today/Gallup Poll

    http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/01/obama-up-by-13.html

    Obama up by 13 points, McCain up by 4 in USAT/Gallup Poll in N.H.

    Sen. Barack Obama has opened up a 13 percentage point lead over Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in the battle for votes in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary, according to a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll conducted in the state from Friday through this afternoon. The results were just released.

    On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain is 4 percentage points ahead of Mitt Romney.

    The surveys of 776 New Hampshire residents who are “likely” to vote in the Republican primary and 778 New Hampshire residents who are “likely” to vote in the Democratic primary were all completed after the news from Thursday’s Iowa caucuses had been reported.

    The rundowns:

    Democrats.

    • Obama: 41%; up from 32% in the last USA TODAY/Gallup New Hampshire poll, taken in mid-December.
    • Clinton: 28%; down from 32%.
    • John Edwards: 19%; up from 18%.
    • Gov. Bill Richardson: 6%; down from 8%.
    • No one else above 3%.

    Republicans.

    • McCain: 34%; up from 27% in mid-December.
    • Romney: 30%; down from 34%.
    • Mike Huckabee: 13%; up from 9%.
    • Rep. Ron Paul: 8%; down from 9%.
    • Rudy Giuliani: 8%; down from 11%.
    • No one else above 3%.

  11. I’m in Utah with some Mormons, listening to the radio station hosted by Fred Savage. I think his show is called the “Savage Nation”. Anyway, he said that Obama won NH because he handed out 50,000 flyers telling out of state college students to drive into NH and vote.

    Phil,

    It is entirely legal for college students to caucus in Iowa, considering that they are residents there 9 months out of the year.

    That is the LAW in Iowa.

    And, it’s never been a ‘problem’ until THIS year, because Obama was seriously courting this vote.

    This became a real controversy as one of the most influential political columnists in Iowa, David Yepsen, came out against it, and then the campaigns began to come out against it.

    But, the young student voters fought back, and national student-based organizations, both Democrat and Republican, called Yepsen and the campaigns on their BS , and accused them of trying to voter suppress the youth vote. They all backed down and mumbled apologies.

    The Obama campaign did not waver from their courting of the Youth Vote, and indeed, they worked hard to get those young people to come back to school EARLY – and they succeeded – they got a nice chunk of college students to come back and caucus.

  12. Rikyrah:

    The Borg Queen will be toast if she loses New Hampshire, no matter how many House or Patio Negroes she trots out to tote her water.

    I never knew you were one for blood, girlfriend,

    I’m telling you that the combination of her and Bill’s EGOS, along with their sense of entitlement..

    NO WAY they drop out before February 5th. Never.

    Yes, I’m out for blood.

    Dangnabbit, I want blood on the GOP side too….GO MCCAIN!!

    OT- I’m watching C-SPan right now, and they found one of the 100 Negroes in New Hampshire to introduce Michelle at the campaign office in Plymouth, New Hampshire. …LOL🙂

  13. rikyrah,

    Yeah, I figured something like that. The comments I heard was part and parcel of an introverted oblivious perspective of privilege that many Americans are steeped in.

    I got some work to do…

  14. candace

    Why do you guys feel that there will be blood should Obama wins NH? Blood from whom?

    I think a more correct prediction is there will be blood should Obama win the presidency!! I think Hillary will accept her lumps like a true competitor! Afterall, Bill lost the governorship once in Ak. I think she knows that Obama is a phenom, and it would be smart for her to not attack him!!She’s no dummy!!I just really hope that sentiments don’t turn against Obama, after he wins the nomination, like they seemed to have turned against Hillary. Politics, go figure!!!!

  15. Candace, while it wouldn’t be smart for the Borg Queen to attack Obama, a wounded animal always attacks when they’re cornered.

    Obama has Hillary cornered. She’s fighting for her political life with this election. She can’t afford to continue placing third in the primary contests all the way to the Democratic convention. She was also riding on a sense of entitlement to being POTUS, because she is married to a former POTUS – Obama knocked her off that sense of entitlement and she’s flaming mad she has to actually get off her ass and campaign without having to resort to being down and dirty about it.

    Hillary won’t accept her lumps until she’s forced from the race, period. Maybe not before February 5th, but long before the Convention this summer, if she hasn’t taken too many primary beatings.

    And the granite state only has 125 Negroes living there – it shouldn’t have been too difficult to find someone to introduce Michelle…😉

  16. Rick

    Looking into the future…

    When Obama wins the Democratic nomination, who will he pick as his running mate? Am I the only one who felt that John Edwards was staking out a claim to be VP on a national Democratic ticket?

    (the only issue I’ve always had — going back to Kerry/Edwards — is whether or not Edwards can help carry the South).

    Rick

  17. candace

    Political junkie,

    I agree that she’s prob. feeling wounded right about now, but I still think that she’s too smart to attack Barack! This contest is a national contest and it’s not over yet!! Case in point, several political pundits still think that Guiliani will win the rep. nom. even though he came in 5th in Iowa and looks to come in 4th or 5th in NH. Heck, he’s really not even in the race yet, so, Political junhie, don’t think that hillary’s camp isn’t aware of this very fact!!!

    And, also, PJ, no one is going to throw in the towel until they are forced to. Should Hillary act any differently?

  18. jessica

    Dear Phil,

    I do believe that Obama courted the college students. I don’t believe that it is unusual for college students to vote where they attend school. The reality is that everyone discounted the idea that this age block would vote. I voted where I went to college. Obama simply urged the students to return before the finish of their winter break to attend the caucus. Once the other candidates saw the momentum they made last ditch efforts to sway the students. I read that at on e major university there were zero votes for Hillary.

    Interestingly, I read, but have not verified, that the Clinton campaign reserved many large venues in towns and then did not use them. Were they trying to squeeze down the size of Barack’s rallies?

  19. Well, Candace, I could be wrong, but I’ve been observing the Clintons since they came on the scene back in 1992.

    Have you ever read the book “The Hunting of the President” by Joe Conason? It’s a must read if you want to understand how the Clintons learned to play the political game, especially when you’re so hated by a mogul named Richard Mellon Sciafe, that he devotes part of his considerable fortune to trying to politically, personally emotionally and mentally destroy you as an elected official and as a human being.

    While it makes the reader somewhat sympathetic to the Clintons (particularly the Big Dog), Hillary saw what the ReThugs did to her husband and she learned the game by fighting them on their own turf. But, in competiting against Obama, I can’t help but think she feels Black people owe her some kind of “loyalty” and they’re going over to Obama in droves. If you’ve listened to any interviews she’s conducted since the Iowa caucus, her sttitude has been flat stank. She doesn’t deal with defeat graciously. There are reports that her campaign workers are floating resumes and job applications to either hook up with Edwards or Obama’s campaigns; if they were so sure of Hillary, why are they bailing on her after only one primary?

    I agree that she’s in it until at least February. Maybe she bounces back and maybe she won’t. But, if she plays the race card (and mind you, she doesn’t have to actually say the words, just imply through other statements, as she’s been doing), Black people will see that a mile off, and will respond by throwing their votes to Obama, whether or not he’s convinced us he’ll be a good President on the issues relevant to African-Americans.

    We just don’t like seeing a brotha get attacked by white people who believe African-Americans owe them; we owe White Candidates NOTHING unless they’ve earned our loyalty. At the rate Clinton slung Black or Latino people under the bus during his presidency, when it was expedient (see Joycelyn Elders, Lani Guinier, Hazel O’Leary, Henry Cisneros and Mike Espy), not to mention the assault on affirmative action policies (Mend it, don’t end it) and enactment of laws that lock up people for possessing a a crack rock, while a person with a kilo of cocaine powder gets a slap on the wrist (three strikes laws) and enriching the prison industrial complex by funding to build more jails, I’d say Clinton was far from being the first “Black President”, just because he went on Arsenio and jammed on the sax with the band, and eats at Sylvia’s on the regular (and not hollers for his M-F iced tea, either).

    It’s not that I don’t support this brotha, but I’m going in knowing the facts.

  20. candace

    True dat, but, It’s going to be interesting to see how many of these ills that you so ably outlined Barack will fix overnight/ or at all.

    PJ, no doubt Clinton went along w/a lot of policies that he necessarily didn’t agree w/to get some other things done!! Afterall, he had a republicazn congress for most of the years he was Pres. And, I’m sure you know that in Washington DC, compromise is the order of the day.

    Now, I’m not making any excuses for Hillary, she should at the very least just Barack his props!! But, I’m just not feeling this animosity towards her from Blacks!! Afterall, we have to think about the general. There’s no sense in being vengeful when after ths primary we have to come together to get the dem. nominee elected. I’m supporting Barack, but I’m just not anti-Hillary!!

    I do think Clinton did the best he could do under the circumstances he was under!!Trust me, Barack will be faced w/making similar compromises should he become Prez.!! Then Black folks will criticize him just as you’re criticizing Bill!! You can’t get anything done in Wash. w/o compromising and sometimes going along with some legislation that you may not like. CASE IN POINT, Barack ahs already voted for the PATRIOT ACT, and voted to FUND THE IRAQ, TWICE!! But, PJ, i understand why he did!!

  21. john in california

    First, I congradulate Obama. I thought that all of his nicey-nice with Hillary was to insure a vp nod when, if fact, he had a whole stealth campaign going on under the radar until the last couple of weeks. Well, I always said he was the smartest, and his Iowa victory speech may indicate he is willing to go to the left, so he may end up being the best, too. Now, who do you think he picks for vp? I say that if he wants a landslide, he picks a woman. He can’t pick a black woman (even though E.H. Norton would be the strongest campaigner) so is it one of the gov.s or.. are you ready? Ms Washington Experience – DiFi! I just hope he remembers how she rose from City Councilwoman to Mayor.

  22. John in California,

    You said all along that you thought Obama was the smartest in the room. You seem to be impressed. I have to say, having seen this happen in Illinois, I’m not that surprised. Also, I saw the ground game in Iowa up close and personal, and was impressed by it.

    Hell no to DiFi…no way.

    How about one of those Female Governors though?

  23. Hell no to DiFi…no way.

    How about one of those Female Governors though?

    Co-SIGN, Rikyrah. That would be the fastest way to evaporate my support and considering Feinstein’s one of my home Senators, hell, I’m thinking the California Democratic Party needs to facilitate a recall effort on her ass for continually voting like a corporate ReThug.

    Should Obama win the nomination, I say he should go with Edwards as his VP. In fact, I think, based upon Edwards’ comments tag-teaming him with Obama against the Borg Queen, I’d say Edwards is angling for a VP nod from Obama. He knows the score, and unlike Kerry, if there’s another attempt to steal an election, he wouldn’t have to urge Obama to fight it in the courts.

    If he needs to go with a woman, I say Gregoire of Washington State, or Napolitiano of Arizona, to start.

  24. Rick

    TPJ-
    I really like John Edwards, but fret about his ability to help win votes in the South, should he be put on the national Democratic ticket. My sense is that he’d really struggle to help “win” the South from the Republicans, outside of a few liberal districts in North Carolina. He served as Senator in NC but NC went to Bush in 2004.

    Still, I like him alot and would of course vote for an Obama/Edwards ticket — but I live in NY.

  25. This is an OT, but did anyone see the video of those Ron Paul Supporters chasing after Sean Hannity?

    Too funny for words.

    HILARIOUS.

    Replying to Rick and TPJ,

    Do you think choosing Edwards would shut up the ‘Mainstream’ Blogosphere?

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