Majority of voters don’t buy Obama’s denounciation


Hat Tip: Rasmusen Reports


A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that just 30% of the nation’s Likely Voters believe Barack Obama denounced his former Pastor, Jeremiah Wright, because he was outraged. Most—58%–say he denounced the Pastor for political convenience. The survey was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday night. Obama made his statements about Wright on Tuesday.


Wright held a mini-media tour last weekend capped by a press conference at the National Press Club on Monday. Only 33% of voters believe that Obama was surprised by the views Wright expressed at Monday’s press conference. Fifty-two percent (52%) say he was not surprised.


Fifty-six percent (56%) say it’s at least somewhat likely that Obama “shares some of Pastor Wright’s controversial views about the United States.” That figure includes 26% who say it’s Very Likely Obama holds such views. At the other end of the spectrum 24% say it’s Not Very Likely that Obama shares such views. Just 11% say it’s Not at All Likely.


Just 7% of the nation’s voters agree with Wright’s views of the United States. African-American voters, by a 64% to 12% margin, disagree with Wright. Eighty-one percent (81%) of all voters are following the story somewhat or very closely.


Nine percent (9%) of voters have a favorable opinion of Wright. Eight-one percent (81%) have an unfavorable view. That includes 62% with a Very Unfavorable opinion. As you would expect, there are strong partisan differences on these questions. Generally, Democrats are divided while Republicans take a less charitable view of Obama.


Seventy-four percent (74%) of Republicans believe it’s somewhat or very likely that Obama shares some of Wright’s views. That assessment is shared by 48% of Democrats and 49% of those not affiliated with either major party.


Democrats are evenly divided as to whether or not Obama was surprised by Wright’s comments on Monday. Republicans overwhelmingly reject that notion. Just 36% of Democrats believe outrage was the motivation for Obama to denounce his former Pastor. That view is shared by 38% of unaffiliated voters and 16% of Republicans.


Hillary’s Campaign on life support


Chaos has descended over the Clinton camp and talk of unconditional surrender is surfacing from loose lipped generals further damaging Hillary’s declining prospects to claim America’s Imperial Throne. I’m a big jazz fan and this scenario reminds me of one of my favorite Nancy Wilson tunes: Face it, Girl. It’s Over.

In an eerie replay of the 1984 Democratic Presidential Nomination battle, Hillary, the tired establishment has been, is Mondale. Obama, the charismatic fresh face with “new ideas,” is Gary Hart. Only this time, Obama’s campaign isn’t a hastily thrown together crusade, rather, its a well-oiled machine with spot on polling and good message discipline.

Nobody wants to hear about the Clinton Administration anymore and are desperate to “turn the page” on the whole sorted era of hubris and sex. After enduring 35 years of shameless philandering, Hillary’s arrogant sense of entitlement has her indulging the delusion that America owes her the Presidency. The electorate is slowly disabusing her of that notion.

As predicted by many, Hillary’s national polling lead has collapsed, “The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that Hillary Clinton’s national polling lead has collapsed. Before the Iowa caucuses, Clinton held a seventeen-point lead over Barack Obama. Today, that lead is down to four percentage points in a survey with a four-point margin of sampling error. In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s now Clinton 33%, Barack Obama 29% and John Edwards 20%.”

Democratic Congressman Patrick Murphy of Pennsylvania told Mica Brzezinski and Joe Scarborough that according to his wife, a Bush Republican, the Obama’s were the “Kennedys of our generation,” were “regal” and possessed with a “common touch.”

Whether justified or not, the Obamas have captured the imagination of the nation. I had an extended conversation with one of my best friends yesterday and he expressed some strong reservations surrounding Obama’s readiness to be President. I had the same, I told him, but then I ran down the case against Hillary: Iraq, Rwanda, NAFTA, GATT, WTO, Welfare Reform, etc.

I told him part of leadership is convincing people that you can lead in the direction they want you to go, otherwise they’ll tune you out. If she can’t convince people that she’s about change, she’ll lose. Despite the fact that she’s female, all people see is Bill’s pale, ghostly apparition blathering on, boring people, and that ain’t change.

I am loving every moment of this. Pass the popcorn, somebody.

Rasmussen Poll: Obama up 10 points in New Hampshire


Hat Tip: Rasmussen Reports

Barack Obama, fresh from his victory in Iowa, now holds a ten point lead over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race found Obama with 37% of the vote while Clinton earns 27%. John Edwards is the only other candidate in double digits, with 19% support. Bill Richardson is the choice for 8%.

In a pre-Christmas poll, Clinton led Obama by three. In the poll before that, Obama led Clinton by three.

Clinton still leads nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll but Rasmussen Markets data suggests the race for the nomination is essentially even.

In New Hampshire, Obama leads Clinton by five points among Democrats and by sixteen points among Independents. The survey indicates that 40% of the voters will be Independents.

Eighty percent (80%) of Obama voters say they are certain they will vote for him. Seventy-three percent (73%) of Clinton voters say the same along with 64% of Edwards supporters.

Eighty-five percent (85%) of Likely Primary Voters have a favorable opinion of Obama. Seventy-eight percent (78%) say the same about Edwards and 69% offer a positive assessment of Clinton.

Just 48% of Obama supporters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Fifty-one percent (51%) have the opposite opinion including 22% with a Very Unfavorable opinion of the former First Lady. At the same time, 75% of Clinton supporters have a favorable opinion of Obama.

Among Edwards voters, 79% have a favorable opinion of Obama and 73% say the same about Clinton.

Obama is seen as the most electable Democratic candidate. Eighty-seven percent (87%) believe he would be at least somewhat likely to win if nominated. Seventy-six percent (76%) say the same about Clinton and 75% think Edwards would have a chance. Fifty-one percent (51%) of the Likely Democratic Primary Voters believe Obama would be Very Likely to win. Just 38% have such confidence in Clinton.


Also in today’s news is Wisconsin Governor Jim Doyle’s endorsement of Obama and the endorsement of former Virginia Governor L. Douglas Wilder, the first black elected Governor, of Obama. Wilder, now the mayor of Richmond, VA, was a former 1992 Presidential candidate against Bill Clinton.

In a sweet irony, Wilder’s presidential ambitions were ended by skittish Yankees in New Hampshire skeptical of the notion of a black president. Clarence Page has written, “When Doug Wilder tested the New Hampshire presidential primary waters in 1992, three years after he became Virginia’s first elected black governor, a white New Hampshire focus group liked him until they found out he was black, according to Wilder’s pollster. They had no personal objection to his race, they said, but they doubted that he would go over with the rest of the state’s voters.”


Today’s polls and overflow crowds appear to indicate that most of New Hampshire has gotten over that particular racial hang-up.

Hillary dips in Rasmussen tracking poll


 Barack Obama at ASUHillary Clinton in Berlin Feb 10, 2007 4

Hat Tip: Rasmussen Reports 

In the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination, New York Senator Hillary Clinton has fallen below the 40% mark for the first time in more than two weeks. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Clinton at 38% and Illinois Senator Barack Obama at 27%. Clinton’s lead over Obama has declined for four straigusht days, ever since she made controversial comments defending lobbyists at the Yearly Kos bloggers’ convention over the weekend (see daily history). Just 24% of voters believe that Clinton would not be influenced by lobbyists.

However, while Clinton’s lead has gotten smaller in recent days, the decline follows several months of growing strength for Clinton. In fact, the most recent Rasmussen Reports weekly analysis of the Democratic race was titled “Clinton Rising, Obama Falling.” The reversal over the last few days merely puts the race back to where it was for most of June and July—Clinton in the mid-to-upper 30s and Obama in the mid-20s. Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards remains in third place with support from 13% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson tops the second tier of candidates at 4%.

As is always the case with daily tracking polls, it will take several more days to determine whether the most recent trend reflects an actual change in the race or is merely statistical noise.

Obama leading McCain and Romney 47% to 38%,


Barack ObamaJohn McCainMitt Romney

Hat Tip: Rasmussen Reports

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone poll finds Illinois Senator Barack Obama (D) with a nine point lead over Arizona Senator John McCain (R). It’s Obama 47% McCain 38%. That’s little changed from a month ago and the fourth straight monthly poll in which Obama has enjoyed an advantage over McCain. For the two months before that, they were tied.

McCain has had a terrible month of July including a shocking report that his campaign was nearly out of money, staff defections, and declining poll numbers. Among those seeking the Republican nomination, he is currently in fourth place in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Early in the month, his favorability rating fell to 44% and, for the first time ever, a larger percentage offered an unfavorable opinion of the Senator. Polling released this week showed that McCain’s decline has stopped for the moment–45% now have a favorable opinion of him while 46% hold an unfavorable view.

Last December, McCain had been viewed favorably by 59% of voters. As recently as two months ago, 55% had a positive assessment of the Senator from Arizona.

As McCain seeks to keep his campaign afloat, he does so with a tremendous disadvantage—40% of Republican voters have an unfavorable opinion of him. No other candidate in either party approaches that level (the closest is former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, viewed unfavorably by 31% of Republicans).

Obama is now viewed favorably by 54% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 37%. He remains in second place among those seeking the Democratic Presidential nomination. Obama and New York Senator Hillary Clinton are clearly in a league of their own at this point in the nomination process.

McCain also trails Clinton and former North Carolina Senator John Edwards in general election match-ups.

Obama leads Romney and is in close races with Republican frontrunners Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani.

Fascinating Rasmussen Poll: Obama and Bloomberg tied


Go to fullsize image

Hat Tip: Rasmussen Reports

A new telephone survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports highlights the difficulty of estimating the potential impact of an independent Presidential campaign by New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

While any third party campaign is a long-shot at best, Bloomberg has reportedly said he will spend up to a billion dollars of his own money on a campaign. Given such resources, he could be competitive with the major party candidates in getting his message out.

When voters are told in advance that Bloomberg might spend up to a billion dollars on a campaign, and that he might support proposals to get voters back in the loop of America’s political system, 51% of New Jersey voters say they would consider voting for him. Just 23% would not. Not surprisingly, given his regional name recognition, that’s a bit more support than found in national polling.

In fact, in a three-way race with Illinois Senator Barack Obama (D) and former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson (R), Bloomberg is tied for the lead. It’s Obama 32% Bloomberg 32% and Thompson 20%.

Bloomberg does almost as well when the other candidates are former North Carolina Senator John Edwards (D) and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (R). With that match up, it’s Edwards 34% Bloomberg 32% and just 18% for Romney.

Bloomberg does not fare as well when the major party candidates are also from New York. An all New York general election match-up shows New York Senator Hillary Clinton (D) with 38%, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani 29% and Bloomberg 21%.

If Bloomberg found himself in second place as Election 2008 progresses, the dynamics get even more interesting. If it became clear that the Republican candidate couldn’t win, 48% of New Jersey voters say they’d pull the lever for Bloomberg over New York Senator Hillary Clinton (D). Just 36% would vote for Clinton.

If the Democratic candidate couldn’t win, 33% of voters would prefer former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani while 48% would prefer Bloomberg.

These results are dramatically stronger for the Mayor than an earlier New Jersey survey in which respondents were not told in advance about Bloomberg’s reported spending commitment or any campaign themes.

In this survey, before the ballot questions were asked, respondents were asked a series of questions to determine if they would be more or less likely to vote for Bloomberg. Forty-six percent (46%) say they’d be more likely to vote for Bloomberg he were to support a proposal requiring all tax increases to be approved by voters.

Forty-five percent (45%) say they’d be more likely to vote for Bloomberg if he were to build a true third party rather than just make an ego-driven run for the White House.

In this survey, 33% of New Jersey voters believe it is possible for him to win the White House if he spends that much money. Thirty-nine percent (39%) say it is not possible while 28% are not sure. Those figures are identical to the earlier New Jersey survey.

Bloomberg is contemplating running at a time when the brand names of the two major parties is not doing well —the number of people considering themselves Republicans has dropped to the lowest level of the Bush era and the number of Democrats has just declined to the lowest level in seventeen months.